A Midlife Crisis Of A Neo Indian Middle Class Dude!! (Sounds Familiar ;))
For much of the late 1990s and the first two decades of the New Millennium, the most celebrated achievement of successive governments, both at the centre and in the states, was the rapid “progress” made in lifting Millions of Indians out of poverty and into the Neo Middle Class. Estimates of these newly minted Millionaires (in Rupee as well as Dollar terms) vary from 200 Million to 400 Million, though arriving at a “narrower” range depends on who you talk to on the political and economic spectrum. Numbers aside, the bottom line was that India or Bharat has “arrived” in a vein similar to that of other hitherto Third World nations like China, Brazil, South East Asian Tigers and so on. This claim to fame was based on the “successful” transmigration from Bharat and into India, wherein the aspirational Neo Middle Class formed a substantial and eye-popping market for everything from Nike footwear to high-end automobiles.
So, amidst all this euphoria, why (and who) am I to dismiss this? Well, being a member of this very Neo Middle Class, benefiting from subsidized education, liberalization and economic reforms providing me with a rather varied career from IT to freelancing, I know for sure what it means to be part of this cohort as well as know how it feels to be “left behind” from a confluence of factors such as the Pandemic, the Tech Layoffs, the rise of Artificial Intelligence, and most importantly, the very real aspect of being unable to “move up the value chain” financially and careerwise. As I explain subsequently, this is what economists call “The Middle Income Trap”, as nations having achieved a reasonable economic status, find themselves to “grow beyond” that.
First, let us look at what has been happening in the Tech industry, the “creator of wealth” for Middle India for the last three to four decades. Not only are middle managers being laid off for being “excess baggage” as they are neither “useful” for not having the aptitude for AI and other advanced skills, nor “cheap” on a CTC (Cost to Company) basis, having been the recipients of boom driven “largesse” thus far. Further, look at the way the much-vaunted startup ecosystem is “imploding”. From the poster child of Indian Unicorns, Byjus, to other equally celebrated startups like Dunzo and so on, the combination of an economic slowdown and a “funding winter” has been taking its toll on the Indian Neo neo-middle class.
Second, now that I’ve harped on the “slowdown”, an unappreciated aspect of the rise of the Neo Middle Class in India was the debt-fueled asset acquisition and consumption binge that characterized the Yuppy (Young, Upwardly Mobile, Middle Class) brigade. With Putin ensuring that inflation and consequently, Interest Rates spike higher, and the Pandemic era easy money doing its bit, and now, China being on the ropes rounding the “cup of woes”, the Neo Middle Class is being hit on all sides. No longer can they afford the luxurious lifestyles of yore, or “borrow their way out” of the rut. So, there you are with the “convergence” of geopolitical and once-in-a-century plague, playing “spoilsport” with their “inevitable ascent”.
Of course, most problems have solutions, and the most obvious “fix” for this is for the Neo Middle Class to “up its game” by reskilling, rebooting (a much-loved term across the nation), and rejuvenating themselves to work harder. In a way, this is happening and so, some sort of relief for the “beleaguered” thirty and forty-something Indians. However, as Mark Twain famously remarked, Death and Taxes are the only constants in this world, and as the pandemic brought the former into view, the fact that taxation rates on the Middle Class in India are amongst the highest in the world does not bring any cheer to this cohort. A double whammy of high interest rates and higher taxation rates have dampened their joi de vivre.
To put it into perspective, members of my generation, the infamous Gen Xers, bought houses on loans, worked abroad for a considerable time, had children who are now coming of age and graduating and entering the workforce, and otherwise developed a certain sensibility towards a more developed India, which is now up for grabs. Not only are the purchases of the second house and the third car or SUV looking like White Elephants, the diminishing prospects for immigrants in the West, are putting laid to rest any hopes or ambitions of riding the waves of woes. Further, with so much uncertainty on the political front, abroad as well as at home, the children of the Gen Xers cannot justifiably aspire to a better standard of living than their parents. Taken together, these trends portend a Perfect Storm of economic, social, and personal crises, the solutions to which are hopefully with better minds than mine.
To wrap up this cribsheet, a litany of woes, I would like to point out that the reason for this post was more of an “exploration” into what my peers and compatriots of my generation are going through and whether and If, they share these “general grievances” which I have outlined here. This “midlife crisis” is something I’ve been mulling on for the last five to six years and this is the first time, I put the concerns and the rants into a post!
Thanks for reading and do reach out if some of what I’ve written resonates with you.
Originally published at https://indiaarriving.substack.com.
