As Modi 3.0 Starts Its “Innings”, Will It Again Be Jumlas And “Clever” Jingles??
With the Modi 3.0 administration all set to start their innings, I do hope that they do “perform” as much as they are “performative” i.e. more substance than spin, and ore heavy lifting than hype. With so much “irrational exuberance” all around, I wish the “jumlas” wouldn’t simply be just that and there is a sincere effort to translate such slogans into realistic results, visible “on the ground”, and not on Billboards alone. Hype is OK as long it has some (ideally, more) substance to it. In this post, I list a few of the slogans which were Modi’s contribution to the national discourse over the last decade he has been at the helm. I explain what needs to be done, and why “miles to go” should be the guiding principle, perhaps mirroring the “frenetic” building of Roads and Ports, and Highways and High-rises.
However, ever since the election results poured in on June 4th, 2024, all we read and see is how the “Modi Magic” would propel the Sensex to over 1 Lakh and other such “hyperventilating” reports. Some economists (who also happen to be critics of Modi) are warning of a “looming” financial crisis, and others have only expressed “cautious optimism”. While not exactly doomsayers, we need to listen to the likes of Ashoka Mody and Raghuram Rajan more to get the “real” sense of the economy, minus the “spin”.
Gleaned from my reading are some “insights” on why Modi 3.0 has more challenges on the economic front, more than Modi 2.0 at the start of the term, or for that matter, even Modi 1.0 when the “Acche Din” promise propelled him to power for the first time. First, jobs, jobs, and jobs: The “writing on the wall” is clear. Unless Modi 3.0 gets its act together quickly and “does something” to spur employment, the “Viksit Bharat” slogan wouldn’t be worth the time invested (pretty minuscule, I guess) to coin and come up with the associated branding.
Next, India’s much-vaunted “Demographic Dividend” would run out in a decade or so, and If the broader “Sangh Parivar” hopes to be in power beyond that, “they” do need to take their “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas” slogan more seriously. Investing in quality education and skill development as well as addressing “unemployability” (nearly 60% of all Indian graduates don’t have real-world skills for the jobs), Bharat would be staring at social unrest and chaos. Having a humungous labour pool is useless when they are plain “not fit” for the available jobs. The wider point is a Double Whammy, not enough jobs and not enough skilled candidates even for the meagre jobs in the market.
Third, the grandiose “Atmanirbhar Bharat” hasn’t taken off, either in Modi 1.0 or Modi 2.0, and we continue to lag behind even “upstarts” like Vietnam in the share of global manufacturing exports. While it is all well and good to Make in India and all that, the fact is even after nearly Eight Decades after Independence, India accounts for less than 3% of global exports of goods. Of course, we’re doing way better in the Services niche, with our IT (Information Technology) sector contributing to around 5% of all services exports globally. Invest, Build, and Make ad infinitum should be the motto, or otherwise, follow Raghuram Rajan’s advice to primarily focus on Services while promoting manufacturing.
Last, India might be “Vishwaguru” for some, but, Modi 3.0 needs to demonstrate that his administration presents Bharat as a “mature and responsible” power rather than the “made for TV” spectacles on one hand, and playing “fast and loose” with global agreements on the other hand, and worse, being “trigger happy” abroad. If we are to be taken seriously, Modi 3.0 must “walk the talk” and instead, invest in partnerships. Modi 3.0 has started well with its Neighborhood First approach as evidenced by the presence of leaders from our “biradari”, and hopefully, this would continue in the future as well. Further, Modi 2.0 was successful in the way we balanced our “interests” in an increasingly Multi-Polar world and now, we must also play tough with China, and press for the advantage with a much weakened Pakistan.
Originally published at https://indiaarriving.substack.com.
